All recent opinion polls suggest that both major parties, the ruling Conservatives and opposition Labour, will be unable to secure a working majority in this Thursday’s UK general election. With coalition government on the horizon again, its proving impossible even to predict whether Conservative Party leader David Cameron or the Labour Party’s Ed Miliband will have the keys to 10 Downing Street and there is increasing speculation that Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood will have to call in constitutional advisers to resolve some potential areas of conflict caused by what is termed a ‘hung Parliament’.
After what could best be described as a lacklustre 6 week election campaign, Britain most probably faces a period of political instability as a result of the tightest race for Downing Street since 1974. With virtually no movement in any of the 10 opinion polls throughout the campaign, both the Conservative Party – which was in coalition with the Liberal Democrats since the last election in 2010 – and the main opposition Labour party are neck and neck in the battle for winning constituencies in the 650 seat House of Commons each predicted to get about 33% of the anticipated vote, under 300 seats and way below a majority.
As neither Cameron (who had 306 seats in 2010) nor Miliband (with 258 MPs last election) will secure an overall majority both will be looking for coalition partners. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats are likely to lose at least half their parliamentary representation of 57 MPs, they are down around 9% in the latest polls, it appears that they and the 8 Ulster Unionists probably will be insufficient to lift Cameron over the 323 seat figure he needs, to stay as Prime Minister with a proper majority - last time his coalition had a majority of 73.
Biting at his heels is the right wing UK Independence party UKIP who are polling around 13% and although that will not produce more than a couple of seats due to Britain’s first past the post system, it is widely anticipated they will erode the majorities of many conservative MPs and in some key constituencies this will let opponents win instead.
Labour meanwhile faces bigger challenges. Leader Ed Miliband’s perceived lack of popularity, evidenced by his inability to shift the opinion polls in Labour’s favour despite an unpopular Conservative dominated administration has led to constant criticism of his leadership skills and absence of the ‘x’ factor, the political charisma that would attract voters. He is also said by his critics to be too left wing and too close to leftish trades unions such as UNITE, one of the major sources of Labour Party funding.
But personal criticism aside his biggest headache comes from north of the border in Scotland, which hitherto provided a solid and politically sound section of the Parliamentary Labour party.
After the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP’s) defeat in last year’s referendum vote on Scottish independence, the SNP has seen a massive surge of support and all opinion polls suggest they look set to win anything up to virtually all of the Labour Party’s 55 Scottish seats, denting a major gap in Labour’s chances of getting the 323 needed for a Commons majority.
Complicating matters even further Miliband has ruled out any coalition or other arrangements with the leftist SNP because they still threaten to call for an Independent Scotland and he like all other party leaders opposes the breakup of the United Kingdom fearing it would damage both the political and economic fabric of the UK in a union which was established in 1707.
Moments after the polls close at 10pm UK time (midnight in Israel), a joint broadcasters exit poll will be made available to show initial trends, but due to local issues, the UKIP and SNP effects and yes... the British weather, it will probably not be clear which party leader can claim the right to have a try to form a coalition until around midday on Friday when most of the results are known.
And if neither the Conservative led side (with Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and UKIP) nor the Labour side (with the unwelcome but tacit support of the SNP) can put together a stable enough government voters can expect a second general election later in the year.
Lord Gus O’Donnell, the former Cabinet Secretary who handled the delicate coalition negotiations in 2010 said Wednesday that the next Government need not necessarily be the party with the largest number of MPs but the one which can secure a majority when placing their policies before Parliament in a few weeks time.
On the advice of the current Cabinet Secretary one or other party will be asked by Queen Elizabeth to form an administration most probably on the basis of their ability to secure enough Parliamentary votes to secure their legislative programme. That may well be contested by the other leading party if they have more Commons seats risking dragging the Monarch into a constitutional row. However if the chosen party is subsequently defeated in a Commons confidence motion, the chances are Britain will have to go to a second election later this year in an effort to end the stalemate.