World Jewish News

EU elections in 28 member states: centre-right or centre-left majority in the European Parliament ?

Some 400 millions EU citizens in 28 countries are eligible to vote from 22-25 May to elect the new 751 members of the European Parliament (MEPs), the only directly elected EU institution.
According to the latest opinion polls, the centre-right is set to win the most seats in the EU assembly but the gap with the other biggest political group, the centre-left, has narrowed to its closes margin which makes the choice of a new president of the European Commission uncertain. Under the 2009 Lisbon Treaty, the party that wins the election is best placed to have its top candidate become the president of the European Commission, one of Brussels' most powerful jobs, with far-reaching influence over legislation.
An analysis of national polls consucted by PollWatch 2014, last wek, showed that the European People's Party (EPP) will take 212 seats in the May 22-25 vote, only three more seats than its center-left rivals, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D).
In the outgoing parliament, the EPP had 271 MEPs while the S&D had 190.
Around 70 percent of the EU parliament’s 751 seats are expected to go to Europe's four mainstream political groups : the centre-right, centre-left, Liberals and Greens.
But as predicted since several months, around a quarter of the parliament seats are likely to be won by anti-EU, extremists, populists, on the extreme-right and extreme-left, almost double their standing at the last election in 2009, a consequence of the economic crisis and the voters frustration with high unemployment and low growth. These parties are expecte to win about 31 pc of the vote, with 218 out of 751 seats, a gain of 54 seats compared to the current EU parliament.
Among them are the Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in Holland, Jobbik in Hungary, Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement in Italy and the UK Independence Party (UKIP) led by Nigel Farage in the UK
"Compared to the outgoing parliament, the new parliament would be more polarized, with more MEPs on the radical left and on the right," PollWatch said in a statement.
PollWatch forecasts that if the extreme right forms an alliance that includes the France's National Front and Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, it would win enough seats to form a group, meaning access to EU funds and greater influence.
UKIP, which wants Britain to leave the European Union, could lead another anti-EU group with 64 seats, enough to secure the chairmanship of a committee in the parliament.
Under EU rules introduced in 2009, the party that wins the election is best placed to have its top candidate become the president of the European Commission, one of Brussels' most powerful jobs, with far-reaching influence over legislation.
The name of a candidate for president of the 28-member European Commission, who will replace Portugal’s José Manuel Barroso, will be put forward by the EU member states at an EU summit end of June after ‘’taking into account" the results of the elections. The European Parliament will elect the new president in July on basis of a parliamentary majority.
According to commentators, the Socialists might be better placed to secure allegiances with other parties on the left, potentially helping them secure a majority in parliament.
Who are the candidates to head the European Commission ?
The EPP has chosen Jean-Claude Juncker, 59, the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg, as their candidate to succeed Barroso, who has led the Commission since 2004.
The Socialists are backing Germany's Martin Schulz, 58, the current President of the European Parliament.
The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats(ALDE) have chosen former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt as their candidate for Commission president. PollWatch's latest survey sees the Liberals taking just 63 seats against 85 in the outgoing parliament.
The other candidates are Greek far-left Alexis Tsipras and Ska Keller for the Greens.
Besides choosing the new President of the European Commission, the 28 EU member states will also have to select in November a new President of the European Council – to replace Belgian Herman Van Rompuy – and the new High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy to succeed British Catherine Ashton.
This year European elections are spread across four days with 25 May as election day for the majority of the member states. Seven countries will vote earlier, beginning on 22 May : Czech Republic, Ireland, Latvia, the Netherlands, Malta, Slovakia and the United Kingdom.
While the EU has grown and as its parliament has become increasingly important (co-decision with the EU Council, hearing of future members of the European Commission, ratification of international agreements….), popular participation in European elections has dropped.
In 1979, when the first direct European Parliament was elected, 62 % of eligible voters cast their ballots. But this figure was only 43% in the 2009 elections. Last opinion polls seem to indicate that this trend will continue this week.

EJP