As tens of millions of Egyptians turned out to vote in the first presidential elections of the Second Republic in Egypt, a US survey cast doubt on the likelihood of the next president maintaining Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel.
The 2012 Public Opinion Survey in Egypt, carried out by The University of Maryland, found that 44% of Egyptians would annul the peace agreement, whilst 10% said the next president should amend it. Poll director Professor Shibley Telhami from the university admitted that the mixed results “give politicians tremendous leeway”, leaving Egypt’s future potential diplomatic relations with Israel uncertain.
Another worrying statistic from the survey related to the current nuclear discussions with Iran, as 61% of those surveyed said that if Iran is allowed to continue amassing nuclear weapons, Egypt should follow suit.
Election polls from the scene were largely mixed, with no candidate showing a clear majority, paving the way for a next round of polling next month. The latest indicated results from the Muslim Brotherhood, with 12,800 (out of an approximate 13,100 in total) polling stations counted on Friday, placed Ahmed Shafiq (the last Prime Minister to serve in former President Hosni Mubarak’s government before he was ousted in the popular uprisings) on 23% behind Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Mursi on 25%, suggesting a run-off vote between the two, scheduled for June 16 and 17.
According to Mohamed Beltagy, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood party:
“Now Egyptians will have to choose between the revolution and the counter-revolution. The next vote will be equivalent to holding a referendum on the revolution”.
Meanwhile, an al-Jazeera report suggested Mursi was in the lead, with a close battle for second place amongst the three other candidates. Official results will not be announced until next week, although candidate representatives are allowed to observe the count and reach their own predictions.
EU High Representative Baroness Ashton greeted the election as “a major step forward in Egypt’s democratic transition”, adding:
“The path that began with last year’s revolution and which has continued with parliamentary and the ongoing Presidential election should now lead to a strong response to the peoples’ demands for freedom, dignity and development.”
“We will continue to stand by Egypt and its people in their quest for deep democracy and economic opportunity”, she continued.
Israel has reacted cautiously to the progress of elections in Egypt. Victory by any of the Islamist or left-wing candidates is seen as likely to lead to strained relations with Israel and the chance of ‘amendments’ being made to the Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with Israel, as well as a stronger backing for Palestinians in their peace negotiations with Israel. Whilst Mursi has vaguely advocated a ‘review’ of the pact, the Brotherhood has only stated they will not tear it up and former air force chief Ahmed Shafiq has vowed to uphold it.
After six decades living under an authoritarian, military-backed regime, many analysts expected the Egyptian public to vote for an Islamic presidential candidate to go in line with the Islamic assembly they chose previously. However, the Muslim Brotherhood’s majority the parliament has not widely been considered as successful in overturning the dominance of Mubarak-era officials still governing, and with rising crime and a troubled economy, it is now thought the people might back a candidate with previous practical experience of governing.

by: Shari Ryness

EJP