As the dust settles over Tahrir square, and the citizens of Egypt are waking to a new dawn of an era, some burning questions arise: who should run the military-managed government, how should look like a new constitution if any, and what is Egypt’s role in the region – should it change or should it stay the same with some modifications? But above all, the reason for which millions of young educated Egyptians flooded the street is the socio-economic situation of the 6000 years-old empire on the Nile River.
Poverty and corruption were the main gross national product of Egypt, as its deficit soars to $170 bn, or 74 percent of its gross national product. With over 30 percent of unemployment and less than 10 percent of population with bank accounts, Egypt relies now more than ever upon the international aid. The young educated Egyptian look up to the west with sparkling eyes to a brighter future; where he can be limited only his imagination, and not by political whims of bribed clerics.
Yet the road to liberalization of the Egyptian spirit, and its markets, lies in harms way because of genuine fear amongst states in the region and the democratic states: the possibility that Egypt will become an Islamic Republic as it happened in Iran, merely 3 decades ago, still burns in the Western democracies flesh. One of the first tests would be keeping the peace treaty with Israel, its ally in the north. Although the army regards these 30 years-old agreements as strategic to Egypt, some voices are calling to postpone relations with Jerusalem and ‘reassess’ them.
These voices were countered numerous times by the United States, the European Union, and the Quartet, stressing the importance of maintaining the peace between the nations as a pivotal tool to an already shaken-up region after the deterioration in Israel’s relations with Turkey, and Hezbollah nominating a Prime Minister (emphasizing their firm grip over Lebanon). The West cannot afford itself to lose another country in favor of the Iranian axis. Therefore, gentle threats are aimed at those in Egypt who challenge the peace process.
Sadat’s treaty with Israel was beneficial in two main levels: first, his battered post-1973 army was in need of new weaponry and stronger support from a richer patron. The Soviet Union was facing an economic crisis and the United States could offer this support. Secondly, a peace treaty with Israel will open a door to the West, which was vital for the crippling economy in Egypt. Sadat saw the peace with Israel as a peace with richer markets and stronger actors, which would help him to bring Egypt to the verge of development and beyond. He wasn’t wrong.
Since the signing of the peace agreements Egypt receives a military aid of $1.3 billion/year which grade its army second only to its Israeli counterpart (at $3 billion/year). Moreover, the Egyptian market opened to the West and supplies grains and cotton, meat and tourism in large figures. This oxygen line to the Egyptian economy helped it to decrease illiteracy as well as increase life expectancy by 20 percent over the last 30 years. Peace with Israel is, therefore, Egypt’s threshold to the world.
By reassessing the peace agreements with Israel, the Egyptian newborn state, might face an international ban on trade, and more evidently on the US aid. This will thwart its efforts to create a wealthier society that is interested not only in promoting the revolution but also to develop it on a daily basis. The peace with Israel is not only important for the region’s stability, but mainly to the Egyptian people that simply seeks for a better life. Israel will reassess – most probably – its strategy toward Egypt in the days to come. Yet the threat of cutting relations is greater to Cairo than to Jerusalem.
I call, in the name of TZEDEK, the association of European Jewish Lawyers, to the European Union, as well as the Quartet and the United States, to prevent such a ‘reassessment’ in the name of non-democratic values. The Egyptian people struggled for thousands of years for freedom, and now when an opportunity as such occur, fundamentalist voices – that rely on the western aid – call for the closure of Egypt’s doors to the free world, hampering the true fight for democracy carried by the young Egyptian dreamers – generation facebook and twitter.